In a state that has voted blue in every presidential election since 2008, it can be easy to forget that Virginia voted Republican for all presidential elections between 1968 and 2004. This year, there was a shift closer to the right that could lead to future Republican success at both the state and federal levels.
Vice President Kamala Harris wins Virginia
In Virginia, Vice President Kamala Harris won with 51.8% of the vote compared to President-elect Donald Trump’s 46.6%. This marks a big shift from the 2020 election, as Trump’s percentage increased by almost 2.6%. All 2024 election results use data from the Associated Press.
The Washington Examiner reported that the top three most searched-for issues in Virginia during the buildup to this year’s election day were social security, abortion and crime.
That differs from the CNN exit polls of Virginia in 2020, which found the biggest issues among Democrats were racial inequality, the coronavirus and healthcare policy. The two biggest issues among Republicans in 2020 were the economy and crime.
Congressional results remain stagnant for Democrats
Senator Tim Kaine won his bid for a third term, garnering 54.1% of the vote compared to Republican candidate Hung Cao’s 45.9%. Kaine performed worse than his 2018 campaign, when he was reelected with 57% of the vote.
Two of Virginia’s Congressional Districts are rated as competitive, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, including the 7th District in the Piedmont region and the 10th District in Northern Virginia.
In the 10th District, Democratic Delegate Suhas Subramanyam won his bid to replace outgoing Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton with 52.1% of the vote. His Republican opponent, Mike Clancy, received 47.4%.
According to the Virginia Department of Elections, Subramanyam underperformed when compared to Wexton by one percentage point. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Subramanyam raised nearly three times as much money as Clancy. However, Wexton raised nearly twice as much as Subramanyam in 2022.
In the 7th District, Democrat Eugene Vindman won with 51.1% of the vote compared to Republican Derrick Andersons’ 48.6%. Vindman raised over $13 million compared to Anderson’s $2 million. Both candidates were newcomers to politics aiming to replace Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who has opted to run for governor of Virginia in 2025.
In a similar trend to the 10th District, Vindman underperformed compared to Spanberger’s 2022 campaign by one percentage point, despite raising $5 million more than Spanberger.
Out of Virginia’s 11 Congressional Districts, five voted for Republican candidates, while six voted for Democrats. This party ratio is the same as the 2022 midterm elections. However, following the 2020 election cycle, the ratio was seven Democrats compared to four Republicans, with 2024 marking a continued stagnation of Democratic support.
A close race for mayor in Roanoke
In nearby Roanoke City, the race for mayor came down to a margin of just 59 votes out of 30,000 cast, according to WDBJ7. Democratic Vice Mayor Joe Cobb beat Republican David Bowers, who has served two previous terms as mayor between 1992 – 2000 and 2008 – 2016. Bowers declared himself mayor-elect the day after the election before the race came down to the counting of provisional ballots.
When compared to 2020, Cobb severely underperformed. Democrat Sherman Lea won in 2020 by a margin of four percentage points.
Looking ahead to 2025
In 2025, voters will elect Virginia’s governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general. All 100 members of the House of Delegates will also be up for reelection.
Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who represents the 7th District, remains the only Democratic candidate for governor. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is the only Republican who has announced candidacy for governor.
There is a crowded field for the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, with four candidates currently declared, but there is only one declared Republican candidate: John Curran, a business consultant.
There are two Democratic challengers for the attorney general nomination, but no Republicans have declared their candidacy.
Democrats will be hoping to win back all three offices within Virginia’s Executive Branch after four years of Republican control. During the 2023 General Assembly elections, Democrats took back control of the House of Delegates with a single-seat majority while losing two seats in the Virginia Senate.
With Democrats up and down the ballot underperforming in the 2024 election cycle, it could be an ominous signal for next year’s Democratic candidates that victory is not assured.
